China and India have sharply increased imports of Brazilian crude oil as the ongoing US-Israel war on Iran continues to disrupt energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, according to trade data and market analysts. Asian countries imported approximately 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude from Brazil in 2025, according to trade intelligence firm Kpler. That figure rose to roughly 1.8 million bpd between January and May 2026, as refiners scrambled for supply that does not pass through the Gulf.
Brazil, already one of the world’s biggest oil exporters, has emerged as one of the clearest beneficiaries of the disruption. With Iranian supply effectively cut off and Russian crude largely constrained by sanctions, Asian buyers are competing for alternatives considered both physically available and politically safe.
Sumit Ritolia, a specialist in modelling refinery and oil markets at Kpler, told Al Jazeera that the conflict has reshaped Brazil’s position in global energy markets. “The disruption caused by the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has increased the importance of Brazil as a marginal crude supplier to Asia,” he said. “China and India in particular have increased purchases of Brazilian crude to secure barrels that are not exposed to Gulf shipping disruptions.”
Production Rises, but Modestly
Brazil was producing approximately 3.77 million bpd of oil in 2025. Between January and May 2026, that rose to an average of 4.06 million bpd, reaching 4.11 million bpd in May. The increase, however, does not reflect a dramatic wartime production surge.
“Since March 2026, Brazil’s production has increased only marginally by around 50,000 to 100,000 barrels per day, indicating limited short-term flexibility to rapidly ramp up supply in response to global disruptions,” Ritolia said.
The shift is less about how much Brazil is producing and more about where its oil is going. Petrobras, Brazil’s state oil company, has increasingly redirected exports toward Asia, where refiners are paying more for crude that does not pass through the Gulf. More than 60 percent of Petrobras exports are now heading to China, while exports to the United States have fallen to zero from approximately 60,000 bpd in March, according to oilprice.com.
China Leads the Buying Surge
Chinese imports of Brazilian crude averaged approximately 1.316 million bpd between January and May 2026, compared with roughly 704,000 bpd in 2025, according to Kpler data. In dollar terms, official data compiled by the Brazil-China Business Council shows that the value of Brazil’s crude exports to China surged by nearly 95 percent to $7.2bn in the first quarter of 2026.
India has moved quickly as well. Indian imports averaged about 238,000 bpd between January and May, up from roughly 100,000 bpd in 2025, according to Kpler. In April 2026, Brazil became India’s fourth-largest crude supplier.
The two countries are buying for different reasons. India’s demand is driven partly by rising domestic fuel consumption, and the country holds fewer strategic reserves than China, giving refiners a stronger incentive to secure supply. China, meanwhile, has pivoted heavily toward electric vehicles domestically but still runs vast refining infrastructure that requires consistent crude inflows.
“China and India, along with other Asian countries, need non-Hormuz alternatives that are politically safer and physically available,” Ritolia said. “Brazil’s medium-sweet pre-salt grades fit many Asian refinery slates, and Asian buyers are competing for barrels not exposed to Gulf shipping risk.”
Brazil Eyes Japan and Southeast Asia
Brazil is not limiting its energy diplomacy to its two largest customers. Brazilian Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira said last week that Brazil is “ready to contribute to the energy safety of Japan” through increased crude exports, adding that Petrobras was prepared to expand its presence there.
Earlier this year, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva visited South Korea, where both countries agreed to upgrade bilateral relations to a “strategic partnership” and signed a series of agreements aimed at expanding trade and economic cooperation. Brazil has also stepped up diplomatic and economic engagement with other Southeast Asian nations.
Grade Quality Matters — But There Are Limits
Two of Brazil’s main export grades — known as Tupi and Buzios — are considered “medium-sweet” crude oils, meaning they contain relatively low sulphur levels and can be processed efficiently into fuels such as diesel and jet fuel. That quality profile makes them compatible with a broad range of Asian refineries now seeking alternatives to Gulf supply.
The situation contrasts sharply with Venezuelan crude, which United States President Donald Trump has been promoting to other nations. Venezuelan oil is a very heavy, “sour” crude that many refineries in Asia are unable to process. Washington took effective control of Venezuela’s oil industry following the abduction of then-President Nicolás Maduro from Caracas by US forces in January 2026.
Even so, analysts caution that Brazil is not a wholesale substitute for Gulf oil. “Brazilian crude can replace some medium-sweet Gulf barrels and reduce Hormuz exposure, especially for China and India,” Ritolia said. “But it is not a like-for-like replacement for all Gulf grades.”
Distance and Competition Constrain the Opportunity
Shipping crude from Brazil to China takes roughly 50 days — far longer than Gulf routes — increasing freight costs and tying up tankers in an already strained shipping market. That logistical burden places a ceiling on how much market share Brazil can realistically capture.
Russia may also reassert itself as a competitor later in the year. Arctic shipping routes reopen seasonally, and cargoes travelling from Russia’s Arctic terminals to China take almost half the time of the Brazil-China route. Last week, the United States announced another 30-day extension of a sanctions waiver on Russian oil and petroleum products already loaded onto tankers at sea, potentially making floating Russian crude more attractive to Asian buyers in the coming months.
Economic Gains Beginning to Register
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) reported in March that rising crude prices are expected to support Brazil’s trade balance. Brazil’s Ministry of Finance estimates that Brent crude reaching $100 per barrel would generate revenue equivalent to almost 1 percent of GDP above current 2026 budget projections.
The windfall, however, depends on conditions that may not hold. Ritolia told Al Jazeera that Brazil’s broader role in the global energy market has structural limits that wartime demand alone cannot dissolve.
“Brazil helps diversify crude imports for Asian countries, but its role as an alternative supplier remains capped by Brazil’s overall crude supply growth, freight economics, and competition from buyers in Europe and the US,” he said. “As a result, Brazil is a meaningful marginal alternative for Asia during periods of supply disruption, but it is unlikely to become a structural replacement for Middle Eastern crude in the long term.”
Background
Brazil has been expanding offshore oil production for several years, primarily through deepwater pre-salt fields operated by Petrobras. The Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20 percent of the world’s traded oil normally passes, has faced severe disruptions since the escalation of the US-Israel conflict with Iran in 2026. Russia’s oil exports to Asia have been curtailed by successive rounds of Western sanctions, leaving Asian refiners with a narrowing list of reliable suppliers. Brazil has historically exported most of its crude to China and Europe, but US purchases had also formed a steady portion of outflows until the current pivot eastward.
What Happens Next
Brazil’s Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira has indicated that Petrobras is actively pursuing expanded supply agreements with Japan and South Korea. Kpler data will be watched closely in the coming months to determine whether Brazil’s production can sustain the elevated export pace or whether supply growth plateaus. The reopening of Arctic shipping lanes in summer 2026 is expected to increase Russian competition for Asian crude purchases. Any diplomatic resolution to the Strait of Hormuz crisis would likely reduce the premium Asian buyers are currently willing to pay for non-Gulf crude. The US sanctions waiver on Russian oil, extended for another 30 days as of last week, adds further uncertainty to Brazil’s medium-term export outlook.
