Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched missiles against at least 18 American military sites in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan on June 11, 2026, two consecutive nights after a US Army AH-64 Apache helicopter went down near the Strait of Hormuz. The strikes mark one of the most expansive Iranian military operations since the 2026 war began in late February, and came even as US President Donald Trump was publicly claiming a peace deal was imminent.
The Khatam al-Anbiya air defence headquarters said the attacks were launched “in response to the aggression of America’s terrorist military against areas in southern Iran under the false pretext of its helicopter crash,” according to NBC News. Iran had not formally claimed responsibility for shooting down the Apache, but the IRGC issued a warning that “devastating and more wide-ranging strikes” would follow if the United States continued its attacks on Iranian territory.
The Escalation Sequence
The immediate trigger was the loss of a US Army Apache helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz on June 8. US Central Command described its first retaliatory strike as “a proportional response,” with President Trump confirming that 49 Tomahawk missiles hit targets including some within 40 miles of Tehran, NPR reported.
Iran did not absorb those strikes without answering. The Revolutionary Guard said it targeted 18 American sites in the region. Kuwait’s army confirmed on social media that “air defense systems are currently engaging hostile aerial targets.” Iranian ballistic missiles hit Jordan’s Al-Azraq base on two consecutive nights, and Iran claimed to have damaged F-35 hangars there — though a US military official told CNN that the first attack caused no significant damage and that no American personnel were killed.
The tit-for-tat pace has accelerated. Within a single week, the United States and Israel both struck Iranian territory, Iran downed a US helicopter, fired missiles at Israel, and attacked American military positions in multiple Arab countries. UN Secretary-General António Guterres captured the drift in a post on X, writing: “This week has brought wider attacks and further deterioration where the ceasefire is more like a lesser-fire. We should not minimize the risks of lesser fire becoming full fire.” He called on all parties to “work towards a diplomatic settlement.”
A Regime That No Longer Flinches
What makes the current pattern striking to analysts is not just the military exchange, but what it reveals about Iran’s strategic posture.
The Economist reported on June 11 that “Iran’s fear of war has vanished,” and that what was once unthinkable has become routine. Iran’s rulers had spent decades being cautious about the direct use of military force. Having now survived a war against two adversaries — the United States and Israel — far superior in conventional military strength, the Islamic Republic appears to have drawn a different lesson than Washington anticipated.
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy noted this shift in Iranian leadership rhetoric. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who replaced his father Ali Khamenei after the elder was killed in the opening strikes of Operation Epic Fury on February 28, adopted a triumphal tone in a speech to sports champions in October 2025, saying: “Iranian missiles were able to penetrate into the depths of several of the Zionist regime’s important centers to destroy and eliminate them.”
An Iran analyst with close access to Tehran’s policy circles, speaking to the Christian Science Monitor without further identification, described the operating logic this way: “The mindset is, we resist, or we get martyred while trying. What we are seeing now is the playbook, developed if all-out war broke out. A very detailed contingency plan.”
Trump’s Calculation Collides with Iran’s
For months, President Trump has insisted publicly that Iran’s regime was eager to reach a deal. On June 8 — the same day the Apache went down — he said both sides had “agreed, through me, to stop.” The military exchange that followed within hours contradicted that framing directly.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told CNN that Tehran has “no problem” pushing forward with peace talks, so long as Iran is confident the American side is being sincere. But the IRGC’s simultaneous strike on US bases suggests the two tracks — diplomacy and low-intensity warfare — are being run in parallel rather than sequentially.
Trump told reporters that additional strikes on Iran would follow if a deal was not reached, but added that he had called off fresh strikes because an agreement was imminent, according to the Washington Post.
The Economic Toll Inside Iran
The military operations are extracting a severe cost from ordinary Iranians. Iran’s economy had already been damaged by years of international sanctions and chronic government mismanagement before the 2026 war. Now it is confronting something close to complete collapse, according to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.
Tehran-based economist Javad Rahimpour told Radio Farda: “People are worried about running out of money. Many are eating into their savings.” A resident of Tehran who identified himself only as Masud told Radio Farda: “We gathered electrical appliances from the house, took carpets and things like that, and sold them.” He said he also makes sandwiches at home to sell on the Tehran subway.
Rahimpour added: “The level of economic discontent is very high. It is not the kind of thing that can be concealed by words or writing. The conditions for protests may not currently exist, but that should not lead us to think there is some kind of convergence between the state and the people.”
Reuters reported in late March that Iranian authorities were already responding to the threat of unrest with mass arrests, executions, and heavy security deployments — including, according to Reuters, the recruitment of children to staff checkpoints. “The regime is paranoid, wounded and bitter and it will want to crush any trouble before it starts, but doing so could actually turn more people against it,” a senior Iranian source told Reuters.
Regional Stakes
The strikes on Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan put Gulf Arab governments in a difficult position. Saudi Arabia has intercepted Iranian missiles aimed at Prince Sultan Air Base and Riyadh’s airport. The UAE, according to Wikipedia’s running casualty tally, has intercepted 537 ballistic missiles, 2,256 drones, and 26 cruise missiles from Iran as of early April, at a cost of 13 lives and 224 injuries.
Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz has also introduced global energy risk. On June 12, Iranian forces fired toward a tanker transiting the Strait without permission, the first use of kinetic force to enforce the declared closure, according to the Global Security daily update. Brent crude fell nearly 3 percent to $90.38 following that incident and was sliding toward $88 in early trading. The Energy Information Administration warned that global oil inventories were at their lowest levels in more than two decades and expected inventories to fall by 6.3 million barrels per day in the current quarter.
The World Food Programme has also issued warnings. Acting WFP Executive Director Carl Skau said that ripple effects from the Iran war are increasing the risk of acute hunger for millions of people globally.
Background
Operation Epic Fury, the US-Israel joint military campaign against Iran, began on February 28, 2026, with strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in the opening salvo. Iran’s Assembly of Experts — the body responsible for selecting a new supreme leader — lost its meeting venue in an Israeli strike on March 3, delaying the succession process. Mojtaba Khamenei, considered more hawkish than his father, was subsequently appointed as the new supreme leader. The original Twelve-Day War in June 2025, involving US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, ended in a ceasefire that held until fighting resumed in February 2026. Iran has since attacked US bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, as well as firing missiles at Israel on multiple occasions.
What Happens Next
Trump has stated that further US strikes on Iran are possible if a diplomatic agreement is not reached, and has warned of targeting Iranian power infrastructure and oil facilities if the conflict escalates further. The IRGC has pledged additional retaliatory strikes if US operations continue. Iran’s Civil Aviation Organization said airspace has returned to “normal conditions” and expects flight operations to resume, suggesting both sides may be seeking a limited pause. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has halted Israeli attacks on Iran, but CNN reported that Israel was preparing a significant strike on Tehran before Trump intervened by phone. Formal ceasefire negotiations remain formally open, with a top Iranian official telling CNN that Tehran is prepared to engage as long as the US acts in good faith.
