Shipowners Warn a Peace Deal Alone Will Not Reopen Hormuz Without Clear Framework
Shipping executives gathered in Athens on Monday told Reuters that a US-Iran peace agreement, however welcome, would not by itself be enough to restore normal commercial operations through the Strait of Hormuz without a clearly defined legal and operational framework governing vessel transit. The warning came as the world’s largest gathering of shipping industry leaders convened for Posidonia, the biennial maritime exhibition, against the backdrop of a three-month crisis that has left over 1,500 vessels stranded and reduced Hormuz traffic to roughly five percent of its pre-conflict volumes.
Pankaj Khanna, President of Heidmar Maritime Holdings Corp, told Reuters: “What we need is obviously a framework, a rules regulation, whatever tells us exactly how we can go in and get out. So even if a peace deal was signed, that needs to be clarified and that we don’t know as yet.” NBC News
Khanna’s company has direct experience of the crisis. He said Heidmar had a vessel stuck inside the Gulf for the past three months and described the human consequences for its crew: “Obviously the seafarers on board are missing out, not only on seeing their families but also on births, on deaths, on marriages.” NBC News
Greece’s shipping minister placed the industry’s frustration in a broader political context. Vasilis Kikilias said: “Can somebody predict the end of the conflict? Unfortunately, no. It has been proven that there is no prediction, and things get messy in terms of conflicts very, very easily, and they get untangled very, very difficult. We are hoping, of course, that there will be a solution. We cannot accept that there will be no free pass for ships all over the globe.” NPR
The scale of the obstruction is without modern precedent. Strait of Hormuz traffic has been reduced to roughly five percent of pre-conflict volumes through limited, Iran-coordinated transits. Daily crossings are averaging under seven vessels — well below the historical norm of more than 60. About 2,000 ships remain stranded in the Gulf, waiting to be allowed through. PBSwho
Insurance is one of the most intractable remaining obstacles. Even if the Strait were reopened to all traffic, there would still be major obstacles to shipping. The United States has said it will take six months to clear mines it believes have been laid by Iran. War-risk insurance remains largely unavailable, and insurers require the waterway to be formally declared safe before they will underwrite transits. whowho
Even a near-term agreement would require weeks for demining, insurance normalisation, and clearance of the backlog of stranded vessels, with full recovery potentially extending into September, according to analysts. That timeline sits well beyond the period covered by current US-Iran ceasefire negotiations, which remained unresolved as of Monday. PBS
The Athens meeting exposed the gap between diplomatic progress and operational readiness. Shipping executives were largely sceptical that a political agreement between Washington and Tehran would translate quickly into safe, insurable, commercially viable transit. The concerns they voiced — framework clarity, mine clearance, insurance re-entry, crew welfare — require institutional and technical resolution that no diplomatic statement alone can deliver.
The crisis has also reopened long-standing debate about the UAE’s role as the region’s primary commercial hub. Jebel Ali is the primary transshipment point for cargo across the Middle East, East Africa, and South Asia, and most hardware entering the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and surrounding markets moves through it. With the Strait effectively closed, the port’s position as the region’s commercial gateway has been directly compromised. worldbank
Regional and Global Impact
The Strait of Hormuz carries 20 percent of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas during peacetime, making it the world’s most critical energy chokepoint. Its continued closure is driving sustained upward pressure on energy prices globally, adding to inflationary pressure across import-dependent economies from India to Western Europe. For the first time in modern history, both of the Middle East’s major maritime corridors are simultaneously blocked — the Red Sea route to Europe, already operating at 49 percent of pre-crisis capacity, and the Strait of Hormuz. Container freight rates on Asia-to-Europe lanes continue to rise as a result. whoworldbank
For Greece, which controls the world’s largest commercial shipping fleet by tonnage, the Hormuz closure represents a direct threat to national economic interests. The Athens Posidonia conference, held every two years as the industry’s principal gathering, has this year become an emergency forum as much as an exhibition.
Background
US and Israeli forces struck Iran on February 28, 2026. Within 48 hours, the Strait of Hormuz had effectively closed, with Maersk, MSC, CMA CGM, and Hapag-Lloyd all suspending transits. A US naval blockade of Iranian ports was imposed on April 13, adding a second layer of restriction on top of Iran’s own controls over Strait access. The ceasefire between the US and Iran that followed has held in fragile form but has not produced a binding agreement on Hormuz transit rules. The US disabling of five commercial vessels that attempted to breach the blockade — including the Gambia-flagged Lian Star on May 29 — has reinforced that the blockade is actively enforced. Posidonia, held in Athens, is the world’s largest maritime trade show, drawing shipowners, classification societies, insurers, and equipment suppliers from across the globe. worldbank
What Happens Next
Diplomatic talks between the US and Iran are scheduled to resume in early June, providing the nearest-term opportunity for a framework agreement on Hormuz transit. Even a breakthrough, however, would require weeks of demining operations, insurer re-entry assessments, and systematic clearance of the vessel backlog before daily crossings approach pre-crisis levels. The US has stated publicly that mine-clearing operations alone would take six months. Greece’s Shipping Minister Kikilias gave no indication of a diplomatic timeline but said he expected a resolution to be sought. No joint statement was issued by industry bodies at the Posidonia opening session on Monday. U.S. Department of State
