Embraer CEO Says Iran War Is Causing Airlines to Defer Aircraft Purchase Decisions
Some airlines are holding back on exercising pre-agreed aircraft purchase options because of uncertainty created by the Iran war and its impact on jet fuel prices, Embraer Chief Executive Francisco Gomes Neto told Reuters on Saturday — a sign that the conflict’s economic drag on aviation is beginning to affect fleet planning decisions beyond the Middle East region. Gomes Neto made the comments on the sidelines of the International Air Transport Association’s annual summit in Rio de Janeiro.
“Some companies that could be exercising previously signed options are leaving that a bit further ahead to better understand how the situation will evolve,” he said. CBS News
The Brazilian planemaker was careful to frame the shift as emerging caution rather than a collapse in demand. Embraer has not received requests to defer deliveries or seen a slowdown in active sales campaigns, Gomes Neto said, while noting that the hesitation was concentrated around incremental commitments. An option exercise is a lower-stakes decision than a new order — it converts a previously agreed right to purchase into a firm commitment — but a pattern of airlines leaving options unexercised would indicate a measurable softening in forward fleet expansion plans. CBS News
Embraer’s commercial backlog spans nearly five years of deliveries, and the company continues to pursue multiple sales campaigns for its E2 family, hoping to clinch deals at the Farnborough Airshow in the United Kingdom next month. CBS News
Recent order activity has been positive. Embraer aims to build on agreements with Finnair for 18 aircraft and lessor Azorra for 15, signed after a strong 2025. The company believes the E2’s fuel efficiency makes a compelling case in an environment of elevated jet fuel costs — a selling point that cuts in its favour even as the war creates uncertainty about whether airlines will commit to expansion. CBS News
“There are several campaigns under way,” Gomes Neto said, adding that the timing of potential deals depends largely on customers. “I don’t know if it will be as strong as last year, but it should still be a good year for commercial aviation.” CBS News
The production outlook remains ambitious. Embraer continues to target between 95 and 100 commercial aircraft deliveries in 2027, up from an outlook of 80 to 85 planes for the current year. Gomes Neto stressed that reaching the 2027 target depends more on supply chains becoming smoother than on geopolitical tensions. CBS News
The IATA summit in Rio de Janeiro is taking place against a backdrop of sustained turbulence in global aviation. India’s IndiGo, the country’s largest airline by market share, posted a $280 million net loss in its most recent quarter as soaring jet fuel costs restructured the economics of both domestic and international routes. Leasing companies have expressed concern that airlines may delay fleet expansion decisions, leading to a slower-than-expected recovery for the industry if the war continues and fuel prices remain volatile. statista
The conflict’s impact on aviation extends from operating costs into supply chains. Suppliers such as Strata in the United Arab Emirates manufacture parts for Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has affected the movement of components to and from Gulf-based manufacturers. Middle Eastern airlines and lessors hold 1,710 aircraft on order, representing 9 percent of Airbus’s backlog and 14 percent of Boeing’s — figures that show the region’s exposure to any prolonged disruption in fleet planning caused by the conflict. foodsafetyThe Star
Regional and Global Impact
Although elevated jet fuel prices could crimp travel demand and prompt airlines to defer deliveries of new aircraft, airlines are unlikely to cancel orders outright given years of pent-up demand. The war is more likely to accelerate the retirement of older jets in favour of newer, more fuel-efficient models — a dynamic that plays to Embraer’s advantage given the E2 family’s lower fuel consumption relative to older regional jets. For Airbus and Boeing, the picture is more complex: both carry far larger Middle Eastern backlogs than Embraer and are simultaneously dealing with production constraints that predate the war. umn
Airbus may struggle to meet its 870-jetliner delivery target for 2026 amid problems with engine supplier Pratt & Whitney and long lead times for some materials. Boeing’s output remains capped at 42 jets per month by the US Federal Aviation Administration. The war adds a demand-side uncertainty on top of pre-existing supply-side constraints — a combination that analysts say makes forward revenue visibility unusually poor for the sector. umn
Background
Embraer delivered 78 jets in 2025, still short of its pre-pandemic output, and secured 131 net orders for its E2 regional jet that year as part of a sustained recovery in the regional aviation market. The IATA annual general meeting, held this year in Rio de Janeiro, brings together airline chief executives and aerospace industry leaders to assess the global aviation outlook; the Iran war has dominated the agenda at the 2026 edition. The conflict began on February 28 with joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran, triggering the Strait of Hormuz closure that has kept jet fuel prices elevated for more than three months. Farnborough Airshow, where Gomes Neto indicated Embraer hopes to sign deals, is scheduled for July in the United Kingdom and serves as one of the aviation industry’s two principal order-signing events alongside the Paris Air Show. cdc
What Happens Next
Embraer is targeting the Farnborough Airshow in July as the next major opportunity to convert active sales campaigns into firm orders. Gomes Neto’s 2026 delivery guidance of 80 to 85 commercial aircraft has not been revised following the Iran war, and the company has not disclosed which specific airline customers are holding back on option exercises. The IATA summit in Rio de Janeiro continues through the weekend, with further statements on the industry’s financial outlook expected from airline chief executives. The trajectory of the Hormuz ceasefire negotiations — unresolved as of Saturday — will be the primary variable determining whether airlines’ caution on option exercises translates into broader order slowdowns before the end of the third quarter.
