France is weighing a significant reset of its relationship with Turkey, driven by shifting European security calculations, growing defence industry cooperation, and a common distance from US foreign policy, according to multiple sources familiar with the matter who spoke to Middle East Eye. The potential rapprochement comes ahead of a NATO summit in Ankara scheduled for next week, where French President Emmanuel Macron is expected to meet Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Several longstanding disputes between the two countries remain unresolved.
The prospect of a reset has been shaped by years of quiet diplomatic movement rather than any single event. People familiar with the matter tell Middle East Eye that, after a long period of discontent marked by disagreements over Syria, Armenia and the Eastern Mediterranean, France may be close to opening a new chapter with Turkey.
One western source familiar with the discussions told Middle East Eye that the shift reflects a strategic recalculation in Paris. “France is envisaging the future of European security with Turkey as one of its pillars,” the source said, adding that Turkey’s partnership with France would be important in the coming years alongside the Coalition of the Willing — a French-led European security initiative.
A symbolic moment in October crystallised the new dynamic. When US President Donald Trump gathered regional and European leaders behind him at a press conference on the Gaza peace deal in Cairo, both Macron and Erdogan declined to stand behind him. Instead, Macron proposed that the two sit together in the audience. Erdogan agreed. The image drew attention in diplomatic circles as a signal of shared autonomy from Washington.
For Paris, Turkey’s increasingly cold relations with Russia have been an important signal. The number of engagements between Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin has fallen significantly, with no bilateral presidential visit between the two countries since 2023. Turkish officials have increasingly complied with western sanctions on Moscow, and Ankara has not renewed its major gas purchase deals with Russia.
Former French Ambassador Gérard Araud, who spoke to Middle East Eye from Paris, framed the shift in terms of a longer-term European security calculation. “I think that in Paris there is a strong feeling that, on one side, the Americans are leaving us all; that whoever is elected in 2028, we won’t return to business as usual with the US,” he said. “We will be facing Russian pressure. And in this equation, I think Turkey is obviously an important factor.”
Araud also pointed to overlapping regional interests. Both France and Turkey have backed Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa. Both want a strong central state in Lebanon and oppose Israeli actions there. On Iran, both support a diplomatic resolution. A second source familiar with French government thinking told Middle East Eye that as Israel has grown more combative toward Turkey, it has also triggered a series of crises with Paris over Lebanon, further aligning the two countries.
The most concrete area of potential cooperation is defence procurement. Turkish Defence Minister Yasar Guler said last week that Ankara was very interested in purchasing SAMP/T air defence systems, produced by a French-Italian consortium. Paris has held up the sale in recent years because of political tensions with Turkey, as well as Ankara’s demands for joint production. Intelligence Online reported in May that Macron had ordered a review of SAMP/T to assess ways to meet Turkish co-production demands ahead of his Ankara visit.
Alice Rufo, minister delegate to the French minister of armed forces and a career diplomat who was recently part of Macron’s inner circle, visited Ankara and held talks with senior defence ministry officials, according to Middle East Eye, raising the prospect of a deal during the NATO summit.
At the company level, cooperation is already underway. Safran, one of France’s major defence firms, recently signed a strategic partnership with Baykar, Turkey’s leading drone producer, to co-develop integrated solutions combining optronic sensors, navigation systems and guided-weapon capabilities for both drone and air-to-ground missions. As a result of the deal, Baykar’s TB2 drones will be equipped with Safran’s Euroflir electro-optical system. A second source familiar with French government thinking told Middle East Eye that Paris is also considering expanding dialogue to include partnerships on helicopters.
Araud argued that Turkey’s defence output offers practical advantages for Europe. “What the Turks are doing, first, is cheaper; second, it’s more robust,” he said, adding that Ukraine has shown that an ability to produce large volumes of lower-cost weapons may prove decisive. “Tomorrow’s war will mean being able to build a lot — a lot — of cheap weaponry.”
Not everyone in the French strategic community shares the optimism. Dorothée Schmid, head of the Turkey and Middle East Department at the French think-tank IFRI, offered a more cautious assessment. “France considers that Turkey has embarked on an autocratic course and is pursuing a power-based policy centred on its own interests, which are not compatible with those of Europeans,” she said.
Schmid also flagged the structural difficulty of the broader bilateral relationship. “In short, the two sides are continuing to negotiate, but against a backdrop of low levels of trust. The NATO summit in Ankara is expected to provide an opportunity for Turkey to showcase its power, which never fails to surprise the French: the two countries have entered into a sort of systemic symbolic rivalry,” she said.
Several specific disputes continue to shadow the relationship. Macron has not visited Ankara despite repeated invitations from Erdogan since 2022. A third source told Middle East Eye that a state visit could become possible if Ankara decides to open its border with Armenia — France has a large Armenian diaspora, and progress on Armenian-Turkish normalisation could create political space for such a trip. Ankara’s decision to bar Turkish nationals from attending French embassy-run schools in Turkey also remains unresolved, with both sides caught in procedural disagreements.
The Eastern Mediterranean adds a further complication. France holds a defence treaty with Greece and Macron made a public show of commitment to Greek sovereignty during a visit to Athens earlier this year. Turkish officials have dismissed French rhetoric on Greece’s defence, with one Turkish official telling Middle East Eye it was commercially motivated. “It is a nothing burger, really,” the official said. Araud told Middle East Eye that Macron has been aware he has gone too far in his public alignment with Athens and is looking to rebalance.
Background
France and Turkey have been NATO allies since 1952 but their relationship deteriorated sharply through the late 2010s over multiple fronts: competing military operations in Libya, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Turkish naval confrontations with French vessels in the Mediterranean, and Erdogan’s repeated personal attacks on Macron. Turkey’s defence exports reached $10 billion in 2025, establishing Ankara as a significant arms supplier to NATO members and beyond. The collapse of the $114 billion Future Combat Air System programme between France and Germany earlier in June 2026 has intensified French interest in alternative European and regional defence partnerships. Macron’s own presidency ends in April 2027, after which France could elect a government with a different approach to Turkey.
What Happens Next
The NATO summit in Ankara next week is the immediate test of the reset, with both Macron and Erdogan expected to hold bilateral talks on the sidelines. A SAMP/T air defence deal, which would require Paris to approve Turkish co-production arrangements, could be announced during or after the summit. Araud told Middle East Eye that Macron wants to improve the relationship with Turkey and senior French officials agree that ties need to improve. Turkey has also been engaging with French right-wing leader Marine Le Pen, Middle East Eye reported, suggesting Ankara is preparing for the possibility of a different French government after the 2027 elections. Whether a formal state visit by Macron to Ankara materialises will depend in part on movement on the Armenian border question, according to sources familiar with French government thinking.
