Andy Burnham is set to become Britain’s next prime minister without a formal leadership contest within weeks, according to Middle East Eye, after Labour MPs rallied around him in the hope he can reverse a collapse in support among voters the party once relied on. Among the groups Labour has lost most dramatically are British Muslims, whose support for the party has fallen from more than 80% in 2019 to just 33% in areas with high Muslim population density, according to a May poll cited by Middle East Eye. Understanding how Burnham might rebuild that relationship requires examining both why it broke down and what concrete steps are now being discussed within Labour.
The collapse traces back to a strategic choice made under former Prime Minister Keir Starmer and his then chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney. Their approach focused on courting voters who might otherwise back Reform UK or the Conservatives, on the assumption that traditional left-wing voters and British Muslims had nowhere else to go and were therefore not at electoral risk. That assumption proved wrong. Labour lost more votes to the Green Party than to Reform in local elections last month, a result that triggered Starmer’s departure from office, according to Middle East Eye.
Cost of living ranked as the top factor shaping Muslim voters’ choices in those local elections, followed closely by opposition to British government policy on Israel and Gaza, according to research from the Henry Jackson Society cited by Middle East Eye. This pattern is not unique to Muslim voters. A separate study found that more than half of former Labour voters now planning to support a centre or left-wing party cited Israel’s war in Gaza as a factor in their decision, suggesting the erosion of trust runs deeper than any single demographic group.
Internal Labour Muslim Network polling published in 2025 found that 82% of the party’s Muslim MPs, councillors and mayors believed Starmer had handled the war in Gaza badly, and that 64% felt Labour operated what they described as a “hierarchy of racism.” Samayya Afzal, vice chair of the Labour Muslim Network, told Middle East Eye that the relationship between Muslim voters and the party has been “driven well past the point of crisis,” citing both internal Islamophobia and the government’s approach to Gaza. She said Burnham’s leadership “presents an opportunity to reset and rebuild trust,” contingent on genuine engagement and a serious response to what she described as the situation in Gaza, Sudan and Kashmir.
Mustafa al-Dabbagh, assistant secretary general of the Muslim Council of Britain, framed the challenge in terms of representation rather than outreach alone. “British Muslims are equal partners in the national project and the government needs to speak to them, not at them through government-appointed or self-appointed gatekeepers,” al-Dabbagh told Middle East Eye. He said any incoming prime minister must also address economic concerns including public services, the NHS and the cost-of-living crisis alongside foreign policy.
Personnel decisions are likely to signal whether Burnham intends a genuine course correction. Reports indicate Burnham has asked James Purnell, a former Blair-era minister and one-time chair of Labour Friends of Israel, to serve as his chief of staff, a choice some commentators have read as signaling continuity rather than change. Ali Milani, chair of the Labour Muslim Network and a figure with longstanding ties to Burnham, has been mentioned as a possible appointee who could carry credibility among Muslim communities and the party’s left.
The choice of foreign secretary carries particular weight. Current Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper said last week that the government will “have to do more on Israel-Palestine” and “take stronger action,” a comment Middle East Eye said reflects internal Foreign Office pressure that Downing Street had previously resisted under Starmer. Wes Streeting, the former health secretary who privately pushed Starmer toward a tougher stance on Gaza and only narrowly held his Ilford North seat against a pro-Palestinian independent in 2024, is seen as a contender for the role, as is Emily Thornberry, chair of the parliamentary foreign affairs select committee.
Chris Doyle, director of the Council for Arab-British Understanding, told Middle East Eye that Britain’s next prime minister “will need to make a really significant course correction on Middle East foreign policy,” and said that course correction would require resisting pressure from the Trump administration. Recent polling of Labour members found 87% support a ban on trade with Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank, with only 6% opposed, according to survey data cited by Middle East Eye.
Regional and political impact
The scale of Labour’s losses in the May local elections illustrates the practical stakes of the debate. Labour MP Kim Johnson told Middle East Eye that the party lost 58% of the seats it was defending in England and lost nearly four times as many voters to the Greens as to Reform UK. “We cannot deny that Gaza is a major reason many have walked,” Johnson said, arguing that foreign policy “isn’t a side issue” but a matter of “values, credibility and whose side you are on when it matters.” Advocacy groups including Medical Aid for Palestinians have called on the incoming prime minister to halt arms sales to Israel and end trade with illegal settlements, framing these as preconditions for any credible reset with Muslim voters.
Background
Britain’s Muslim population shifted decisively away from Labour following the 2024 general election, when four Labour MPs, including Leicester South’s Jonathan Ashworth, lost their seats to independent candidates campaigning largely on Gaza. Other senior figures, including Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood and former Health Secretary Wes Streeting, only narrowly retained their seats against similar challenges. The Muslim Vote, a campaign launched in December 2023, organized some of that opposition and has continued pushing Labour to adopt a harder line on Israel. The Council for Arab-British Understanding and the British Palestine Project have jointly proposed five specific policy pledges, including a ban on trade with illegal Israeli settlements and enforcement of unrestricted humanitarian access to Gaza, that they want the incoming government to adopt.
What happens next
Burnham is expected to take office within weeks without a formal leadership contest, after which his cabinet appointments, particularly the choice of foreign secretary, will offer the clearest signal of his intended direction. A parliamentary debate on settlement goods, secured by Sheffield Central MP Abtisam Mohamed, is scheduled for July 7 and is expected to draw significant attention. Labour backbenchers have continued pressing for a full ban on imports from Israeli settlements, a measure that has not yet been formally adopted by the government and remains one of the clearest tests of whether Burnham’s premiership marks a genuine shift from Starmer-era policy.
