Iran Survives Three Months of US-Israeli Strikes, Leaving Gulf States to Recalibrate on Shakier Ground
The United States and Iran signed a Memorandum of Understanding on Friday, June 20, in Switzerland, providing for a 60-day cessation of hostilities after more than three months of war — but the deal that silences the guns cannot undo what the fighting has already decided. The region has emerged from one of its most dangerous crises in decades with the balance of power broadly unchanged, Iran politically emboldened, and Gulf confidence in US protection deeply shaken, Gulf sources, diplomats, and analysts told Reuters. RAPPLER
Iran remains a formidable and undefeated force capable of threatening Gulf Arab states and global energy flows, while the United States has again revealed the limits of military power against a resilient adversary, those sources say. RAPPLER
It is the Sunni Arab Gulf states — spectators to decisions that reshaped their security landscape — who have paid the heaviest price.
What the War Failed to Deliver
The US-Israeli campaign, known as Operation Epic Fury, was launched on February 28 and killed then-Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei along with top Iranian officials. After absorbing relentless US and Israeli strikes, the Islamic Republic emerged battered but standing, preserving both its political establishment and much of the leverage that brought the parties to the table. RAPPLER
“‘Epic Fury’ has been an epic disaster,” said Aaron David Miller, a former US official and negotiator. RAPPLER
For Washington, the deal offers an exit from a costly confrontation that failed to deliver its most ambitious objectives — from forcing Tehran’s capitulation to dismantling its nuclear and missile capabilities. For Iran, it amounts to something equally significant: survival. RAPPLER
The MoU provides for a 60-day cessation of hostilities during which both sides will negotiate a permanent settlement, including disputes over Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile. At its core, fundamental disputes remain unresolved: Iran’s enriched uranium, enrichment levels, sanctions relief, security guarantees, and control of key waterways. RAPPLER
Abdulaziz Sager, Chairman of the Saudi-based Gulf Research Centre, was direct in his assessment. “They switched from unconditional surrender to an MOU. They caved in,” Sager said. “They said they would change the Iranian regime — they couldn’t. They said they would resolve the missile and nuclear file — that didn’t happen.” RAPPLER
The Gulf States: The War’s Main Losers
The sharpest shock is being felt in the Sunni Arab Gulf states, where the stability behind decades of economic growth has been sharply challenged. For Gulf states, the US-Israeli campaign triggered precisely the consequences they had long feared: Iranian strikes on energy and civilian infrastructure and disruption to the Strait of Hormuz, dealing a heavy economic blow. RAPPLER
A senior Gulf government source put the conclusion bluntly: any de-escalation is positive, but the situation is unequivocally worse than before the war.
The deal has already begun to reshape Gulf strategic thinking, eroding confidence in US protection, entrenching Iran as an enduring regional force, and accelerating a shift toward accommodation rather than confrontation. Gulf capitals have intensified contacts with Tehran lately, seeking economic and security understandings to reduce the risk of confrontation, regional sources told Reuters. RAPPLER
Middle East scholar Fawaz Gerges framed the shift in terms of a fundamental reassessment. “More and more Gulf states are coming to realise that Iran is here to stay, that it retains the capacity to disrupt the regional order,” Gerges said. “The Gulf states don’t trust Iran. They had hoped the United States would bring about regime change. The reverse has happened. Now more and more Gulf rulers realise they cannot depend on the US, or Israel to deliver security or stability.” RAPPLER
Before the war, the central regional question was the scope of Arab-Israeli normalisation. In its aftermath, the focus is shifting toward Gulf-Iran accommodation. While Washington will remain an indispensable partner, regional analysts say the conflict is likely to accelerate a quiet but consequential realignment, with Gulf states diversifying defence ties and hedging against future shocks. RAPPLER
Netanyahu and Trump: An Open Collision
The emerging deal also appears unfavourable to Israel, according to three Israeli officials, as it omits Israel’s core demands, including dismantling Iran’s enrichment capability and curbs on its missile programme. Officials said Israel was caught off guard when US President Donald Trump signalled on Thursday that a deal was close, highlighting Israel’s limited influence over the terms. RAPPLER
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu raised the issue directly with Trump. Far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir rejected the deal outright, saying Israel was not bound by it “in any way”. RAPPLER
The rift between Washington and Jerusalem had been building openly for weeks. At the start of June, Trump described Netanyahu as “fucking crazy” in an angry phone call, ordering him not to strike Beirut while the US was seeking a deal with Iran. Netanyahu called off attacks that day but struck Beirut’s southern suburbs a week later, provoking Iranian missile strikes on Israel and a public rebuke of both sides from Trump. RAPPLER
Hours before the US and Iran announced their interim deal, Israel hit the Lebanese capital again after rockets were launched at Israel from Lebanon — fire that Trump described as “small and meaningless”. RAPPLER
The preliminary agreement is “terrible for Israel,” said one senior Israeli official, speaking anonymously. “And there is no one in the Israeli leadership who views it otherwise, from the prime minister to the chief of staff.” RAPPLER
Netanyahu’s defence minister, Israel Katz, said in a statement Monday that troops would remain deployed in buffer zones Israel had seized in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza “indefinitely” to eliminate what it perceives as militant threats. “If Iran attacks Israel due to the events in Lebanon — we will attack it with all our might,” Katz said. RAPPLER
Netanyahu, who often clashed with Trump even before the war, faces autumn elections he is projected to lose, and may be more willing to defy the US president as he contends with an Israeli public that opinion polls show has grown sceptical of Trump’s commitment to Israel’s security. RAPPLER
Dan Shapiro, a former US ambassador to Israel under the Obama administration and now with the Atlantic Council, described the moment precisely. “This is a pretty stark moment of divergence of interests,” Shapiro said. “He will try to not openly oppose the deal, so as not to get into a brawl with Trump. But he will indicate Israel is not bound by it, and Israel reserves its rights.” RAPPLER
What the Deal Actually Contains
The MoU, mediator Pakistan said, calls for a permanent halt to military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and the interim deal would reopen the Strait of Hormuz oil chokepoint, while leaving the fate of Tehran’s nuclear programme to be resolved during the 60-day negotiation period. RAPPLER
Two issues that Netanyahu and Trump had both declared as justifications for the war at its outset — curbing Iran’s missile programme and ending its support for regional armed groups — are not thought to be on the agenda during those talks, Reuters reported.
Three Israeli officials told Reuters they believe the 60-day pact will very likely be extended to 90 days, with the US maintaining its deployment of military assets in the region as it negotiates a broader deal. RAPPLER
Miller, the former US negotiator, described the deal’s essential character without ambiguity. “What is about to be signed is not peace, but recognition: that the war’s ambitions outran its achievements; that the battlefield produced a stalemate, and that Gulf states, which bore the heaviest costs, are recalibrating their security on shakier ground than at any point in time,” Miller said. RAPPLER
Having withstood both internal unrest and external military pressure, Iran now faces a different question: whether the war has reinforced, rather than weakened, its sense of resilience, with implications for deterrence in the years ahead, Miller argues. RAPPLER
Background
The US and Israel had previously struck Iran in June 2025, interrupting a period of considerable progress toward Gulf-Iran de-escalation that had been developing in preceding years, according to analysis by the International Institute for Strategic Studies. The February 2026 campaign represented the second major military intervention within less than a year. The agreement may end this phase of the conflict, Gulf sources say, but it does not resolve the strategic dilemma it has exposed: Iran remains a potent force, the Strait of Hormuz has emerged as a recurring pressure point, and the assumptions underpinning Gulf economies look more fragile than at any point in recent memory. Daily TribuneRAPPLER
What Happens Next
Washington says that over the next 60 days, when a ceasefire is in place, it will negotiate full terms intended to address US and Israeli concerns, especially over Iran’s nuclear programme. Israeli officials told Reuters they expect the negotiating period under the deal to be extended, tying Israel’s hands from taking military action while its core concerns remain unresolved. Gulf states will press ahead with intensified diplomatic outreach to Tehran, seeking bilateral understandings independent of whatever Washington and Israel agree. The MoU, Miller argues, is not a resolution but a ticket to negotiation — a first phase that buys time and space for talks whose success is far from guaranteed, with its structure echoing the Gaza ceasefire frameworks: a pause that defers the hardest issues, with no guarantee they will ever be resolved. RAPPLERRAPPLER
