Global Temperatures to Stay at or Near Record Highs Through 2030, WMO Report Warns
Global average temperatures are likely to continue at or near record levels in the next five years, with Arctic temperature anomalies expected to continue to be higher than the global mean, according to a new report from the World Meteorological Organization, produced by the UK’s Met Office. The report was released on Thursday, May 28. WMO
Annual global mean near-surface temperatures during 2026–2030 are predicted to range between 1.3°C and 1.9°C above the 1850–1900 average. There is an 86% chance that one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the warmest year on record, and a 91% chance that the global mean near-surface temperature will temporarily exceed 1.5°C above the 1850–1900 average levels for at least one year during that period. WMO
The El Niño Factor
Dr. Leon Hermanson, lead author of the report, said: “There is an El Niño predicted for the end of 2026, which increases the chances of the following year, 2027, being the next record-breaking year.” WMO
The last El Niño contributed to making 2023 the second-hottest year on record and 2024 the all-time high at around 1.55°C above the pre-industrial average. El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon that warms surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, bringing worldwide changes in winds, pressure and rainfall patterns. It typically takes place every two to seven years and lasts around nine to 12 months. Bangkok Post
The five-year predicted average temperature in the central tropical Pacific indicates a tendency towards El Niño conditions, particularly in 2027 and 2028. IANS News
The 1.5°C Threshold and the Paris Agreement
Melissa Seabrook, a research scientist at the UK Met Office, told Reuters: “There’s very clear evidence that the climate is warming and that the global average temperature is continuing to rise.” The Kathmandu Post
Temporarily crossing the 1.5°C threshold does not mean the Paris Agreement has failed, as it refers to a long-term average over 20 years rather than a single year’s exceedance, Seabrook said, while noting that as the world gets closer to that threshold, it was increasingly likely to pass it more often. “The science is very clear that the window to keeping the global average temperature to 1.5 degrees is closing rapidly,” she added. Republic World
The report also confirmed that no single year during the 2026–2030 period is likely to exceed 2.0°C above the 1850–1900 average. Xinhua
Arctic Warming and Precipitation Shifts
The report’s findings on the Arctic are among its most striking. Arctic temperatures over the next five extended northern hemisphere winters running from November to March are predicted to be 2.8°C above average temperatures for 1991–2020 — an anomaly more than three and a half times larger than the projected global mean anomaly over the same period. Prokerala
Predictions of Arctic sea ice for March 2026–2035 suggest further reductions in sea-ice concentration in the Barents Sea, Bering Sea and Sea of Okhotsk. Those losses carry consequences for shipping routes, regional ecosystems and global weather patterns beyond the polar region. WMO
Precipitation predictions favour wetter-than-average conditions at high latitudes in the northern hemisphere for the next five extended winter seasons, from November to March. The pattern of increased precipitation in the tropics and high latitudes compared to the 1991–2020 reference period, and reduced precipitation in the subtropics, is consistent with expectations of a warming climate. WMO
Predicted precipitation patterns for May to September 2026–2030 forecast wet anomalies in the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and Siberia, while contrastingly dry conditions are expected in the Amazon during that season. Bangkok Post
How the Report Was Produced
The report — titled the WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update 2026–2035 — was produced by Britain’s Met Office as the WMO Lead Centre for Annual to Decadal Climate Prediction. It synthesised predictions contributed by 13 institutes. Those contributing centres included four Global Producing Centres: the Barcelona Supercomputer Centre, the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Deutscher Wetterdienst, and the Met Office. Confidence in forecasts of annually averaged global mean near-surface temperature is described as high, as hindcasts — retrospective tests of the model against observed data — show very high skill. Xinhua + 2
Background
In 2024, average global temperatures surpassed 1.5°C above the pre-industrial era for the first time in recorded history, making it the warmest year on record. Under the Paris Agreement, countries agreed to hold the increase in long-term global average surface temperature well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the increase to 1.5°C. The WMO has published annual-to-decadal climate updates regularly for several years, with each successive edition showing the probability of breaching the 1.5°C threshold climbing higher. A strong El Niño is predicted for winter 2026, which could persist into 2027, driving global temperatures to potential record-breaking levels due to the heating of the Pacific Ocean. Major carbon-emitting economies including the United States have scaled back climate commitments in recent years, adding to concern among scientists about the pace of emissions reductions. BusinessWorld + 2
What Happens Next
There is also a 75% chance that the five-year average global temperature for 2026–2030 will cross 1.5°C above the pre-industrial average — meaning sustained, not just annual, exceedance of the Paris threshold is now considered more likely than not. The WMO report is intended as guidance for Regional Climate Centres, Regional Climate Outlook Forums, and National Meteorological and Hydrological Services who use it to plan adaptation measures and issue regional warnings. The next annual update will cover observed data through 2026 and extend the forecast window further into the 2030s. Down To EarthMet Office
