A new poll published on 9 June 2026 found that 53 percent of former Labour voters who have since moved to other centre or left-wing parties cited the UK government’s position on Gaza as a factor in their decision to switch. The survey, conducted by Opinium and commissioned by the Palestine Solidarity Campaign (PSC) and Friends of the Earth England, Wales and Northern Ireland, polled 700 UK adults who voted Labour in either the 2019 or 2024 general election and now intend to support a different party.
The findings arrive one month after Labour suffered its worst local election results in decades, losing control of 35 councils and roughly 60 percent of its seats at the 7 May local elections, according to Wikipedia’s record of the 2026 Labour Party leadership crisis.
The Numbers
Of those who switched, 21 percent told Opinium that the government’s support for Israel influenced their decision “a great deal,” while 31 percent said it influenced them “to some extent,” according to Middle East Eye. Together, that is a majority — 53 percent — for whom Gaza was at least part of the reason they left Labour.
The concern was sharpest among younger voters. According to Middle East Eye, 66 percent of 18-to-34-year-olds who left Labour cited Gaza as a factor, compared with 54 percent of those aged 35-to-49, 49 percent of those aged 50-to-64, and 43 percent of those aged 65 and over.
Green Party supporters showed the highest sensitivity of any group. Two-thirds of those who moved their vote to the Greens — 67 percent, as Arab News reported — said Gaza influenced that choice. Among former Labour voters who switched to the Liberal Democrats, the figure was 32 percent. For those who moved to the Scottish National Party, Plaid Cymru, or independent candidates, it stood at 44 percent.
What the Palestine Solidarity Campaign Said
Peter Leary, deputy director of the Palestine Solidarity Campaign, said the results confirmed the scale of the issue for left-leaning voters. “The public is rightly horrified by the government’s ongoing support for Israel’s atrocities against the Palestinian people,” he told Novara Media. “This poll confirms that Palestine was on the ballot for millions of progressive voters during last month’s elections. Parties that supported the call for meaningful action — including a full arms embargo and wide-ranging sanctions against Israel — were heavily rewarded.”
Leary also addressed the question of Labour’s future leadership directly. “If any new Labour leader hopes to win back these lost voters, they must urgently break with Keir Starmer’s shameful complicity in Israel’s genocide and other grave violations of international law,” he said.
The Broader Electoral Picture
The poll’s findings sit within a broader pattern that emerged from the 7 May local elections. At those elections, candidates who signed the PSC’s “Pledge for Palestine” won 27 percent of the seats they contested, according to Middle East Eye’s earlier reporting. Labour candidates managed only 22 percent. Reform UK candidates, despite dominating much of the national political conversation, took 30 percent.
The BBC’s projected national vote share from those local elections indicated Labour would have received just 17 percent of the vote if the contest had been held across the whole country — roughly half its 2024 general election share, according to Wikipedia’s account of the Labour leadership crisis.
Renowned pollster Sir John Curtice noted after the May results, as Middle East Eye reported, that the Greens had inflicted considerably more damage on the Labour vote than Reform UK had. The Green Party, led by Zack Polanski, made sweeping gains, including its best-ever results in London, where it won 278 additional seats and two directly-elected mayoral posts, according to Wikipedia.
Beyond a “Muslim Issue”
One dimension of the poll that its commissioners stressed was what it says about who holds these views. The PSC argued that the data disproves a common characterisation of pro-Palestine sentiment as a sectarian or minority concern. The survey covered all former Labour voters who switched to centre and left parties — not a Muslim-specific sample — and found majority-level concern for Gaza across all age groups over 18, including among those in their fifties and sixties.
Seventy percent of respondents agreed that a new Labour leader with a stronger policy on Israel’s actions in Gaza would improve their view of the party, according to Novara Media. Only 6 percent said it would make things worse.
The Makerfield By-Election Test
The findings carry immediate significance for the Makerfield parliamentary by-election, which is ongoing. The PSC wrote to all candidates in that contest last week, asking them to state whether they believe Israel has committed genocide in Gaza and whether they support a full arms embargo, according to a Wire Service Canada report.
The Labour candidate in Makerfield is Andy Burnham, the Mayor of Greater Manchester, who is widely regarded as a potential future contender for the Labour leadership and the role of prime minister. His response to the PSC questions — and Labour’s positioning in the campaign — will be watched closely for signs of any shift in the party’s approach.
Background
Labour won the 2024 general election with a large parliamentary majority but has faced sustained internal and public pressure over its support for Israel since taking office. At the 2026 local elections — held on 7 May — the party lost control of 35 councils and shed roughly 1,500 councillors, its worst local election result in decades. More than 95 Labour MPs had, by mid-May, called on Prime Minister Keir Starmer to resign or set a departure timetable, according to Wikipedia. The PSC pledge — signed by more than 1,600 candidates in the May local elections — committed those candidates to support Palestinian rights if elected.
What Happens Next
The Makerfield by-election result will serve as an early test of whether Gaza continues to cost Labour votes in parliamentary contests. The PSC has confirmed it will continue to press candidates on the arms embargo and genocide questions as part of its formal campaign engagement. The party faces a leadership pressure timeline, with over 95 MPs on record as calling for a change; any new leadership contest would put the Gaza question at the centre of the campaign, as Leary’s comments made explicit. Polanski’s Greens, emboldened by the May results, have signalled they intend to build on their gains ahead of the next general election.
