WMO Warns Strong El Niño Could Develop as Climate Change Amplifies Global Risks
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on Tuesday, June 2, that a new El Niño weather pattern is likely to develop within months, raising the risk of extreme weather worldwide. According to Reuters, the United Nations agency estimates there is an 80% chance El Niño will emerge between June and August 2026 and a 90% chance it will continue through at least November.
The warning comes as scientists say climate change has already increased global temperatures by about 1.3 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, creating conditions that could make the effects of El Niño more severe than in previous decades. Reuters reported that the combination of a warming planet and El Niño could lead to stronger heatwaves, droughts, floods, crop losses and other climate-related disasters.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern that develops when trade winds weaken and sea surface temperatures rise in the eastern and central Pacific Ocean. The phenomenon typically occurs every two to seven years and influences weather systems around the world. According to the WMO, current forecasts indicate that this year’s event could reach strong intensity, defined by eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures at least 1.5 degrees Celsius above average.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo urged governments and communities to prepare for potential disruptions. “We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Niño event – which will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean,” she said, according to Reuters.
Scientists said climate change is likely to intensify the impacts associated with the weather pattern. Piers Forster, Professor of Physical Climate Change at the University of Leeds, told Reuters that warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions is increasing the severity of climate extremes. “When we get an El Niño, because of the underlying climate change, these things become more intensified and they’re more impactful,” he said.
The WMO said forecasts remain uncertain regarding the exact strength of the event. Some climate models project a strong El Niño, while others suggest more moderate conditions. However, most forecasts agree that warmer-than-average ocean temperatures are already supporting its development.
According to Reuters, regions likely to experience above-average rainfall during El Niño include southern South America, parts of Central Asia, the southern United States and areas of the Horn of Africa. Meanwhile, Australia, Central America, Indonesia and parts of South Asia may face drier conditions and elevated drought risks.
Experts also warned that warmer Pacific Ocean waters could increase the likelihood of stronger tropical cyclones. Antonio Navarra, President of the Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, told Reuters that higher ocean temperatures provide additional energy for storm formation. “Because the water in the Pacific will be much warmer, there will be a much more favourable environment for the formation of tropical cyclones,” he said.
Researchers pointed to previous disasters as examples of how El Niño and climate change can interact. Reuters reported that floods in Brazil’s Rio Grande do Sul state in April and May 2024 killed more than 180 people and displaced around 600,000. Scientists concluded that both climate change and El Niño contributed to the intense rainfall that caused the catastrophe.
Climate researchers are also concerned about implications for food production, water supplies and energy generation. Reuters reported that southern Africa could face intensified rainfall shortages during its wet season, affecting agriculture and hydropower production. Similar concerns have been raised for regions dependent on predictable rainfall patterns for farming.
Regional and Global Impact
According to the WMO, nearly every region of the world is expected to experience above-average temperatures between June and August if El Niño develops as forecast. Reuters reported that governments may need to prepare for increased risks to agriculture, infrastructure, public health and disaster response systems.
The United Nations has warned that the phenomenon could further elevate global temperatures at a time when many countries are already experiencing record heat. Reuters reported that the combination of El Niño and climate change has led the WMO to warn that 2027 could become the hottest year ever recorded.
Background
The most recent major El Niño occurred during 2023 and 2024 and was classified by the WMO as a strong event. According to Reuters, that episode contributed to 2024 becoming the hottest year on record globally.
El Niño affects atmospheric circulation and ocean temperatures across large areas of the Pacific, influencing rainfall, storm activity and temperature patterns around the world. The phenomenon usually lasts between nine and twelve months, according to the WMO.
Scientists have long warned that rising greenhouse gas emissions are increasing baseline global temperatures, making natural climate events more damaging when they occur. Reuters reported that the planet has already warmed by approximately 1.3 degrees Celsius since pre-industrial times.
What Happens Next
The WMO will continue monitoring Pacific Ocean temperatures and atmospheric conditions over the coming months. According to Reuters, updated forecasts will determine whether the developing event reaches moderate or strong intensity.
Governments and emergency management agencies are expected to review preparedness plans for heatwaves, droughts, floods and storm activity. The United Nations has called on countries to strengthen early-warning systems and climate resilience measures as forecasts become clearer.
Meteorological agencies will issue regional outlooks to help agriculture, water management and disaster-response authorities prepare for potential impacts through the second half of 2026.
