According to a U.S. official familiar with the intelligence findings, the CIA concluded that Iran can withstand the American naval blockade for roughly four additional months, even as both sides exchanged fire in the Strait of Hormuz on Friday, May 8. The assessment, first reported by The Washington Post, came as Washington awaited Tehran’s response to a U.S. proposal to formally end the war. No Iranian response had arrived by mid-afternoon in Washington on May 9.
The past several days saw the biggest flare-ups in fighting in and around the Strait of Hormuz since a ceasefire began a month ago, and the United Arab Emirates came under renewed attack on Friday. Despite the exchanges, U.S. President Donald Trump maintained that the ceasefire was still in effect.
Clashes in the Strait
U.S. Central Command said a U.S. Navy F/A-18 Super Hornet from the USS George H.W. Bush disabled two Iranian-flagged oil tankers — the M/T Sea Star III and the M/T Sevda — after firing precision munitions into their smokestacks, preventing the ships from entering an Iranian port. Earlier in the week, on Wednesday, an American military jet shot out the rudder of a third tanker, the M/T Hasna, which the U.S. military said was also attempting to breach the blockade.
The UAE’s Defense Ministry said three people were wounded after air defenses engaged two ballistic missiles and three drones launched by Iran. It was not clear if all were successfully intercepted.
Iran’s Mehr news agency reported that one crew member was killed, 10 wounded, and four missing after a U.S. Navy attack on an Iranian commercial ship late on Thursday. The U.S. military said no American ships were struck.
Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency cited an Iranian military source saying the situation had calmed by Saturday, but warned that more clashes were possible.
The CIA Assessment and Washington’s Response
A CIA assessment indicated that Iran would not suffer severe economic pressure from the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports for about another four months, according to a U.S. official familiar with the matter, suggesting that U.S. leverage over Tehran remains limited as the two sides seek to end a conflict that has been unpopular with U.S. voters.
The assessment drew an immediate rebuttal from within the administration. A senior intelligence official called the claims about the CIA analysis “false,” saying the blockade “is inflicting real, compounding damage — severing trade, crushing revenue, and accelerating systemic economic collapse.”
Rubio Presses Iran and Allies
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters in Rome on Friday, after meeting Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, “We should know something today. We’re expecting a response from them.” Iran had not delivered a response as of that evening.
Rubio described it as “unacceptable” for Iran to have a government agency that vets and taxes ships seeking passage through the strait, referring to the Persian Gulf Strait Authority, which Lloyd’s List Intelligence reported Iran had created to position itself as the sole authority granting transit permission. “Is the world going to accept that Iran now controls an international waterway?” Rubio said. “What is the world prepared to do about it?”
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi condemned what he called “hostile” U.S. military action, saying in a post on X: “Every time a diplomatic solution is on the table, the U.S. opts for a reckless military adventure. Whatever the causes, the outcome is the same: Iranians never bow to pressure and diplomacy is always the victim.”
Iran’s Formalized Grip on the Strait
Commercial shipping traffic has largely stalled in the Persian Gulf, with hundreds of vessels remain bottled up amid Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz and the ongoing U.S. naval blockade. The dual blockade has created what observers have described as an economic chokepoint affecting global energy markets.
An adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, Mohammad Mokhber, said Iran had long “neglected” its position along the strait. “The Strait of Hormuz represents an opportunity as precious as an atomic bomb,” he said in a video published by the Mehr news agency. “Having in one’s hands a position that allows you to influence the global economy with a single decision is a major opportunity.”
The U.S. said it was prepared to impose secondary sanctions on foreign financial institutions, including those connected to China’s independent “teapot” oil refineries, for supporting illicit Iranian commerce. The announcement came days before Trump was scheduled to travel to China for a meeting with President Xi Jinping.
Regional and Global Impact
South Korea, which last year imported more than 60 percent of its crude through the Strait of Hormuz, has capped prices of gasoline and other petroleum products. Satellite images reviewed by the Associated Press show an oil slick covering approximately 71 square kilometres emanating from the western side of Kharg Island, Iran’s main crude export terminal, with maritime intelligence firm Windward AI estimating the equivalent of roughly 80,000 barrels of oil had spilled. Windward AI CEO Ami Daniel said the slick could potentially reach the shores of the UAE, Qatar, or Saudi Arabia within two weeks.
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said his country has been in contact with the U.S. and Iran “day and night” in an effort to extend the ceasefire and reach a peace deal.
Background
The 2026 Iran-U.S. war began on February 28 with U.S.-Israeli airstrikes across Iran. A ceasefire was agreed on April 7–8. Direct negotiations took place in Islamabad, Pakistan, on April 11–12 between U.S. Vice President JD Vance and Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf — the highest-level direct engagement between the United States and Iran since the 1979 Iranian Revolution. When those talks failed, the U.S. imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports beginning April 13. The Strait of Hormuz’s two unidirectional sea lanes facilitate the transit of around 20 million barrels of oil per day, representing roughly 20 percent of global seaborne oil trade. U.S. Central Command said it has turned around 58 commercial vessels attempting to exit or enter Iranian ports, with four vessels disabled.
What Happens Next
Before negotiations on Iran’s nuclear programme can begin, Washington is awaiting Iran’s written response to its war-ending proposal. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has warned Iran that “they trifled with us today. We blew them away. They should not have done that today,” signalling continued U.S. military action if clashes persist. The UK’s HMS Dragon has been deployed to the Middle East to pre-position as part of a multinational mission, jointly led by the UK and France, to secure the Strait of Hormuz when conditions allow. The U.S. has also signalled it could restart naval escort operations through the strait. Trump is scheduled to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in the coming days, with secondary sanctions on Chinese oil refiners now formally threatened by Washington.
